Evidence Room

What the Hays Earn-Out Reveals About Pricing Retention Risk

By Jamie Choi · Updated

Brown & Brown paid up to $730M for Hays with $25M earn-out over three years. Every earn-out metric was met and the full $25M was paid. That scores the 2018–2021 price structure — not seven-year retention on the same book.

Precedent IBR-001. Pair with IBR-003 — same Hays asset, retention-protection judgment, different clock.

Bottom Line

Up to $25M of the $730M price sat in a three-year earn-out. That left retention and growth risk with the seller through the integration window. Jim Hays stated under oath in a December 2025 affidavit that they exceeded all earn-out metrics and received the entire $25 million.

Earn-out success is not a seven-year retention verdict.

Historical Conditions

Judgment

Pay $730M for Hays — $705M at closing plus up to $25M of earn-out — funded largely with credit facility borrowings, treating the retained producer force as the asset being bought.

Reconstructed from 8-K terms and management commentary. No published multiple from Brown & Brown in this form.

Reasoning

Outcome

Verdict (scoped): success — 2018–2021 earn-out period only. All metrics met. Full $25M paid.

What went right: Targets cleared each year. Deferral paid only against delivered performance.

Limits: Verdict rests on the affidavit sentence about earn-out attainment. No public Hays-level revenue/margin series after close to audit anything finer.

Next-time rule: Score earn-out success against intangible amortization life, not only earn-out tenor. Track founder and top-decile producers at years five and seven.

What Still Holds

What Changed

Transfer Caution

Provenance

Fixture IBR-001. Source draft: docs/evidence/hays-earn-out-success.md.

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